The Farmer and I have been discussing whether agriculture production has peaked and will be steadily declining in the future. After World War II the rapid progress in technology allowed fewer acres and fewer farmers to feed and clothe the world. Currently less than 1% of the population is engaged in farming. Just in my farming career the only way we have been able to keep up with rising input costs with stagnant crop proceeds is to become more and more efficient. This year our inputs have quadrupled because of the rising cost of fuel which effects fertilizer prices as well as almost everything else. Crop prices had a little rise but have now fallen to their usual levels. There does not seem to be any more ways to squeeze out higher yields based on technology. Our farming operation is not alone. I predict that drastically fewer acres will be planted in the next few years because farmers cannot afford to work all year with the mere hope of breaking even.
So the question becomes, have we reached peak agriculture production? The second big question is, if Americans can be held hostage by foreign oil, can you imagine what life will be like if we are held hostage by foreign food?
In our necessary focus on reducing foreign oil dependence, we are not noticing that we are dangerously drifting toward foreign food dependence in a world that may well be heading for a food shortage the likes of which has previously been unknown to modern man.
Anyway, here is another interesting article on the subject.